* seasonally adjusted

The retail trade retreated 1.0% in volume of sales in September 2016 over the immediately previous month, registering the third consecutive negative figure in this comparison and recording a cumulative loss of 2.4% between July and September. Also in the seasonally-adjusted series, nominal revenue declined 0.3%, after eight positive rates in a row, when it posted a cumulative gain of 4.6%.

In the series not seasonally adjusted, the total volume of retail sales dropped 5.9% in September 2016 over the same month a year ago, registering the 18th consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison. As a result, the indexes for volume of the retail trade were also negative for the first nine months of the year (-6.5%), both of them compared with the same periods in the previous year. Having retreated 6.6% in September 2016, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – reduced the pace of fall against those in July (-6.8%) and August (-6.7%). Concerning these same indicators, nominal revenue of sales continued to record positive changes: 5.7% against September 2015; 5.1% in the cumulative rate in the year; and 4.4% in 12 months, respectively.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material in addition to those of retail – remained virtually stable (-0.1%) in relation to August, after a sequence of six drops, when it posted a cumulative loss of 6.5% between March and August. Nominal revenue stayed at 0.3%. In relation to the same period in the previous year, the extended retail trade recorded drops of 8.6% for volume of sales and of 0.3% for nominal revenue. Concerning the cumulative rates, the figures were: -9.2% in the year and -10.0% in the last 12 months for volume of sales, and -0.6% and -1.6% for nominal revenue, respectively.  

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Six of eight activities surveyed register negative changes

In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales in retail trade dropped 1.0% against August, whose predominance of negative figures reached six out of the eight activities surveyed. The decreasing sales in the segments of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.4%) and furniture and household appliances (-2.1%) were the major negative influences in the overall retail result. The other retreats, in order of magnitude, were reported in books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-2.0%), fabric, apparel and footwear (-0.7%), fuels and lubricants (-0.5%) and other personal and household articles (-0.3%). On the other hand, the sector of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics advanced 1.0% over August, whereas the activity of office, computer and communication material and equipment remained stable (0.0%) in this comparison. Considering the extended retail trade, volume of sales remained virtually stable (-0.1%) in relation to August in the seasonally-adjusted series, influenced by the advance of 2.9% in vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and partly offsetting the cumulative drop of 7.4% between July and August. Having declined 3.1% in volume of sales, construction material negatively pressed the result of the extended retail.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - VOLUME OF SALES INDICATORS OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE, ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITY: PMC - September 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicators comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10

In the comparison with September 2015, in terms of volume of sales, all the eight activities of retail registered negative changes. In order of contribution, the two major highlights were hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-2.6%) and furniture and household appliances (-13.4%), followed by fuels and lubricants and other personal and household articles, both of them declining 9.0%; fabric, apparel and footwear (-10.3%); pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-3.7%); office, computer and communication material and equipment (-11.9%); and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-18.0%).

Having declined 2.6% over September 2015, Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco exerted the highest negative impact on the overall rate. The performance of this activity has been pressed by the continuous drop in the usual real wage bill, as well as by the rise in the prices of food at home above the general index. The cumulative rates in volume of sales were -2.9% for the first nine months of the year and -3.0% for the last 12 months.

Having dropped 13.4% in volume of sales in relation to September last year, the segment of furniture and household appliances was also responsible for the major impact on the retail trade rate. In cumulative terms, the drops were of -13.6% in the first nine months of the year and of -14.6% in the last 12 months. The negative behavior of this sector has been attributed to factors like credit restrictions – mainly due to the increase in the interest rate of credit to individuals – and the negative impact of the reduction of the real income of the households.

Having recorded -9.0% in volume of sales over September 2015, Fuels and lubricants exerted the second biggest negative contribution to the overall result. In cumulative terms, the activity rates were -9.7% for the first nine months of the year and -10.1% for the last 12 months. The rise in the prices of fuels above the average change of prices was one of the factors reflecting the negative performance of this sector.

Having retreated 9.0% in volume of sales in relation to September 2015, the activity of other articles of personal and domestic use, which encompasses department, optical, jewelry, sport article, toy stores, etc.,  also exerted the second biggest negative impact on the retail trade rate.  Concerning the cumulative indicators, the changes were of -11.7% in the year and of -10.4% in the last 12 months.

Having changed -10.3% in relation to September last year, the sector of fabric, apparel and footwear was the third biggest contribution to the overall retail rate. The cumulative indicators were -11.3% in the year and -11.4% in the last 12 months. Even priced below the overall average prices, the performance of the activity of wearing apparel remained below the retail average.

Having posted the rate of -3.7%, the activity of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, and toiletries was the fourth biggest negative contribution. The cumulative rates in 2016 and in the last 12 months were -1.1% and -0.4%, respectively.

The segment of office, computer and communication material and equipment declined 11.9% over the same month in 2015, registering the fifth biggest contribution to the overall result. The cumulative rates stayed at -14.7% in the year and at 15.0% in 12 months. The valuation of the dollar was reflecting in the performance of this sector, since some of the electronic components were imported.

The activity of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery fell 18.0% in volume of sales over September 2015, recording cumulative rates of -16.9% in the nine months of the year and of 16.2% in the last 12 months. The declining path of this activity has been influenced by the gradual loss of the printed format against the electronic one.

The extended retail trade dropped 8.6% in relation to September 2015 in volume of sales and -0.3% in nominal revenue. The cumulative rates were -9.2%% in the year and -10.0% in the last 12 months for volume of sales, and -0.6% and -1.6% for nominal revenue, respectively. Such performance reflected the behavior of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which declined 14.4% in volume of sales over September 2015. In cumulative terms, the changes in this sector were: -14.6% in the first nine months and -17.0% in the last 12 months. As to the sector of construction material, the change in volume of sales was of -10.8% over September 2015. In cumulative terms, the rates stayed at -12.0% in the first nine months and at -12.6% in the last 12 months. The reduced pace of the economic activity has been influencing the performance of these sectors, as well as the dropping income of the households.

Retail sales reduce pace of fall in Q3 (-1.7%)

In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales of the retail trade accelerated the pace of fall between the second (-0.5%) and the third quarter of 2016 (-1.7%), both figures in relation to the immediately previous quarter. In this same comparison, five out of the eight activities surveyed also accelerated the pace of drop of the sales, highlighted by fabric, apparel and footwear (from 0.8% to -5.5%). Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco also left the positive side in the second quarter (0.5%) to a decline of -0.7% in the third one. Considering the extended retail trade, volume of sales retreated 2.4% in the second quarter and 2.7% in the third quarter of 2016. In this same comparison, vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (from -7.2% to -4.4%) and construction material (from -3.0% to -1.8%) went the other way around, reducing the pace of fall between the two periods.

The comparison with the same quarter last year pointed out the seventh consecutive negative rate for the overall retail trade, though gradually reducing the drop of sales along 2016: -7.0% in the first quarter, -6.9% in the second and -5.7% in the third quarter of the year. Of the eight activities surveyed, six of them registered a lower pace of drop in sales between the second and the third quarter of 2016, highlighted by books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (from -20.6% to -16.6%); office, computer and communication material and equipment (from -15.7% to -11.4%); and hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (from -4.0% to -1.9%).

Compared with the same period a year ago, volume of sales of the extended retail trade in the third quarter of 2016 dropped 9.0%, signaling a slight improvement in the pace of fall in relation to the two previous quarters: -9.2% in the second and -9.4% in the first quarter of 2016.  Having changed -16.3% in the third quarter of 2016, the activity of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces went the other way around, showing a gradual acceleration in the pace of fall in relation to the previous quarters: -13.5% in the first and -14.0% in the second quarter of the year. The segment of construction material recorded a rate of -10.1% in the third quarter, against -11.1% in the second one.

Volume of sales retreats in 19 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade declined in 19 out of the 27 Federation Units between August and September 2016. Mato Grosso (-5.6%) and Tocantins (-3.6%) recorded the highest rates in terms of magnitude. On the other hand, the highlights in terms of states with a positive change in relation to August were: Amapá (1.7%) and Piauí (1.3%). Bahia (0.1%), Goiás (0.1%) and the Federal District (0.0%) sales remained stable over August.

Except for Roraima (9.1%), all the states posted negative figures compared with September 2015. In terms of magnitude, the biggest drops were registered in Amapá (-15.9%); Pará (-15.7%) and Rondônia (-15.2%). Concerning the contribution to the overall rate, São Paulo (-5.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (-7.2%) stood out.

Except for Roraima (4.6%), the other 26 Federation Units recorded negative changes compared with the same period last year in the extended retail trade, highlighted by Pará (-17.9%); Tocantins (-16.5%); and Acre (-16.1%). São Paulo (-8.5%) was the state that most impacted the national average.