The Extended National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) changed 0.31% in January, and stood 0.12 percentage points (p.p.) above the December rate (0.19%).  This was the lowest IPCA-15 for January since 1994, when the Real Plan was created. The cumulative index in the last 12 months decreased to 5.94%, below the rate of 6.58% posted in the immediately previous 12 months. The rate was 0.92% in January 2016.
The complete data of the IPCA-15 can be accessed here.

Although the group of Personal Expenses registered the highest figure in January (0.76%), the group of Food and Beverages was indeed the major responsible for the increase in the IPCA-15, by changing from -0.18% in December to 0.28% in January. In the metropolitan area of Salvador, the rise of food products hit 1.05%, whereas it dropped inGoiânia (-0.60%).

After retreating in September (-0.01%), October (-0.25%), November (-0.06%) and December
(-0.18%), the group of Food and Beverages (0.28%) rose again. The pressure came from food consumed at home, which increased to 0.21%, after the significant drop of 0.45% in December. Although not a widespread movement, the prices of some products rose quite well, like soybean oil (8.04%), cassava flour (4.53%), eggs (3.10%) and fruits(2.38%). Other dropping prices decelerated, like potatoes (from -15.78% to -10.85%), carioca beans (from -17.24% to -13.74%) and long-life milk (from -5.40% to -1.96%).

Personal Expenses (0.76%) was the group that recorded the highest rise, due to the cigarettes item (2.61%), whose prices were adjusted on December 1st. Other influences came from the excursion (2.51%) and domestic workers(0.52%) items. The latter took over 1/12 of the adjustment of the new national minimum wage in all the areas surveyed, since the regional wages were not established yet.

Gasoline alone was the item that mostly impacted (0.10 pp) the IPCA-15. The price of the liter rose, on average, 2.43%, reflecting the adjustment of 8.1% authorized by Petrobras in the refineries since December 6. In regional terms, the highest increases were reported in Goiânia (4.60%), Brasília (4.32%) and Fortaleza (4.22%). Aside fromgasoline(2.43%), expenditures with Transportation were pressed by urban (0.83%) and intercity (1.87%) bus fares, as well as by ethanol (2.28%) and voluntary insurance (1.70%).

The rise of 0.83% in urban buses  was the result of the changes in three metropolitan areas. In Brasília (9.25%), an adjustment of 25% in the fares was in force since January 2. Regardless of the decision of the Legislative Assembly of the Federal District to repeal this adjustment on January 12, it remained in force up to the publication of the decision. InSalvador (3.60%), the adjustment of 9.09% was in force since January 2. The fares were adjusted by 9.40% in Belo Horizonete (3.24%) on January 3.

The other groups changed from -0.23% (Household Articles) to 0.48% (Health and Personal Care). Three groups dropped: Household Articles (-0.23%), Wearing Apparel (-0.18%) and Housing (-0.22%). In the last one, theelectricity bills (-2.25%) produced the most intense negative impact (-0.08 p.p.) on the IPCA-15, considering the return of the green tariff flag on December 1st. Electricity fare also decreased by 5.30% in Porto Alegre, reflecting the reduction of 16.28% in the fare of one of the concessionaires since November 22. Still in the group of Housing, the prices rose in cleaning products (1.23%), bottled gas (0.64%) and manpower for small repairs (0.52%), whose increase was similar to the domestic workers item.

In regional terms, the highest index was registered in the metropolitan area of Salvador (0.63%), in which food prices increased 1.05%. The urban (3.60%) and intercity (7.77%) buses items also pressed this result and respectively reflected the adjustments of 9.09% and 8.42%, both in force since January 2. The lowest index was recorded in Porto Alegre (0.03%), influenced by two items: electricity (-5.30%), due to the reduction of 16.28% in the local fares since November 22, and food away from home (-1.08%). The regional results are shown in the table below.

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from December 14, 2016 to January 12, 2017 (reference)  and compared with those in force from November 15 to December 13, 2016 (base). The indicator refers to families with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, and also Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.