Five of the 15 locations investigated by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) fell from January to February, when the country's national production declined 0.3%. The biggest drops were recorded in Mato Grosso (-3.3%), Goiás (-2.4%) and Pará (-2.2%). In comparison with February last year, there was an increase in 16 of the 18 locations analyzed, with the biggest changes recorded in Rio Grande do Norte (67.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (18.3%), Amazonas (17.2 %) and Ceará (14.3%). Year-to-date, the industry expanded 4.3%, with positive results in all eighteen locations surveyed. In the 12-month period, the industry changed 1.0%, with positive rates in twelve areas. The data was released today (9) by the IBGE.

“We observed within the situation that even with the most expansionary monetary policy, with consecutive cuts in the interest rate, the result is still at high levels. This falls directly on the production chain when we analyze the level of investment that is still below what would be implemented within the industry”, explains Bernardo Almeida, analyst at PIM Regional.

The analyst also commented on the state of São Paulo, which had the greatest negative impact on the survey. “We also observed the state of São Paulo as having the greatest negative influence on the national result with a decline of 0.5%. The petroleum derivative sector was the one that most negatively influenced the behavior of the São Paulo industry, followed by the food and chemical products sector”, added Mr. Almeida.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (9.4%), Amazonas (7.3%) and Espírito Santo (5.9%) showed the sharpest expansions this month, with the first eliminating the 5.7% drop recorded in January 2024. Ceará (5.2%), Pernambuco (5.2%), Rio de Janeiro (2.0%), Bahia (1.8%), Northeast Region (1.6%), Minas Gerais (0.9%) and Paraná (0.6%) recorded the other positive results in February 2024.

In relation to the quarterly moving average index, the industry showed a negative change of 0.1% in the quarter ended in February 2024 compared to the previous month, interrupting the upward trend started in February 2023. Five of the fifteen places surveyed recorded negative rates, with a highlight to Pará (-1.6%) and Goiás (-1.1%). On the other hand, Amazonas (10.4%), Pernambuco (5.6%), Ceará (3.4%), Northeast Region (2.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.9%) and Minas Gerais (1.0%) showed progress this month of February.

The analyst also noted a gain in pace in industrial production in relation to results prior to the pandemic. “In February 2024, we found nine locations above the pre-pandemic level: Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Goiás, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina and São Paulo”, added Mr. Almeida.
 
Industry grows in 16 of the 18 places surveyed in relation to February 2023

The country's industrial production grew 5.0% compared to February last year, with growth in 16 of the 18 locations analyzed by PIM Regional. Rio Grande do Norte (67.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (18.3%), Amazonas (17.2%) and Ceará (14.3%) recorded the biggest changes.

“The figure for Rio Grande do Norte is quite significant and can be explained by the low basis of comparison we have for this state. This, combined with the sector of derivatives, was what most influenced this growth of the industry in Rio Grande do Norte, mainly with an increase in the production of diesel fuel and motor gasoline”, explains Bernardo Almeida.

Espírito Santo (10.5%), Goiás (10.4%), Rio de Janeiro (10.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.4%), Mato Grosso (9.2%), Santa Catarina ( 6.6%), Bahia (6.1%), Pernambuco (5.3%) and Minas Gerais (5.2%) also recorded more intense positive rates than the national average (5.0%), while Paraná (4.7%), São Paulo (4.6%) and the Northeast Region (2.8%) completed the set of places with growth in production in February 2024. On the other hand, Maranhão (-0.5% ) and Pará (-0.1%) recorded the declines this month.

Industry grows in all 18 locations surveyed this year

The country's industrial production expanded 4.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, with positive results in all eighteen locations surveyed. Rio Grande do Norte (71.5%), Amazonas (14.0%) and Goiás (10.4%) recorded double-digit advances and the most pronounced in the cumulative index for the first two months of the year.

Other states such as Ceará (8.8%), Rio de Janeiro (8.7%), Mato Grosso (8.7%), Bahia (7.1%), Santa Catarina (6.6%), Espírito Santo ( 6.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (6.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6.0%), Minas Gerais (5.8%) and São Paulo (4.8%) also recorded higher positive rates above the national average (4.3%), while Paraná (4.0%), Pernambuco (3.2%), Pará (2.6%), Northeast Region (2.3%) and Maranhão (1 .7%) completed the set of locations with growth in production in the cumulative index in the year.

“We can attribute this increase in all 18 locations to the increase in the pace of production compared to the same period of the previous year and we also have a low basis for comparison from last year in relation to this moment”, explained Mr. Almeida.

More about the survey

PIM Regional has been producing, since the 1970s, short-term indicators relating to the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings, monthly, indices for the 17 Federation Units whose participation is at least 0.5% in the total value of national industrial transformation and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte , Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted in Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, for March 2024, will be on May 9th.