IPCA-15
Inflation forecast decelerates to 0.06% in June, the lowest rate for the month
June 25, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 25, 2019 11h00 AM
Declines in food and fuel prices helped slow down the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), which went from 0.35% in May to 0.06% in June, according to the IBGE. This was the lowest result for a month in June since 2006, when the inflation forecast was -0.15%.
With the crops harvested, the prices of some important products of the food at home group fell back, which contributed to the deflation of 0.64%. The highlihgts were carioca beans (-14.99%), tomatoes (-13.43%), mulatto beans (-11.48%), potatoes (-11.30%), black beans (-8.84%) and fruits (-5.25%). Food away from home also contributed to the slowdown, dropping 0.33% in June, after having increased 0.48% in May.
The IPCA-15 was also pulled down by the 0.67% drop in fuel prices, which had risen 3.30% in the previous month. While gasoline decelerated from 3.29% in May to 0.10% in June, ethanol rose from a 4% increase to a fall of 4.57% in the same period. However, one item in the Transportation group went the opposite way and exerted the greatest positive impact (0.06 percentage point) on the June IPCA-15: airfares, which rose 18.98%.
In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated a high of 2.33%. In 12 months, the cumulative index was 3.84%, down from 4.93% in the previous 12 months. The IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated in the quarter, was 1.13%.
In five of the 11 areas surveyed for the IPCA-15 calculation, there was deflation. The lowest index was in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (-0.21%), with declines in fruit prices (-12.71%) and gasoline (-2.64%). The highest result was in Brasília (0.30%), due to the high price of airfares (19.10%).
