IPCA-15
Inflation forecat speeds up in April with the highest rate since truckers' strike
April 25, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 25, 2019 12h59 PM
After recording a 0.54% high in March, the inflation preview accelerated to 0.72% in April, driven by price increases in the groups Transportation and Food and beverages. This is the highest rate since June 2018 (1.11%), when the index was affected by the truckers' strike. Before that, the last time the rate had surpassed this month's level was in May 2016 (0.86%). It also is the highest change for an April since 2015 (1.07%).
Meanwhile, the cumulative index over the prior 12 months (4.71%) is the highest since March 2017 (4.73%). The information was taken from the Extended Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today by the IBGE.
In relation to the groups, only Communication (-0.05%) presented deflation in April. Transportation, on the other hand, recorded the highest increase (1.31%) and the highest impact (0.24 percentage points). The result of the group can be attributed in part to fuels (3%), especially gasoline (3.22%), an item that had the highest individual impact on the overall index (0.14 pp). Increases in urban buses (1.04%), train (3.05%), subway (0.68%) and airfare (5.54%) also stood out.
The second highest impact among the groups (0.23 p.p.) was Food and beverages (0.92%). Food at home was 1.43% more expensive, after showing a rise of 1.91% in March. The highlight was tomatoes (27.84%), the second largest individual contribution to the month index (0.07 p.p.). Meat (1.55%) and fruits (3.36%), both with 0.04 percentage points of impact, also influenced this result.
Health and personal care recorded the second largest change (1.13%), contributing with 0.14 percentage points to the general index. Together, those three groups accounted for about 85% of the April change. The other changes ranged from the 0.06% of Education and the 0.57% of Wearing apparel.
Just Goiânia with deflation in April, according to IPCA-15
By areas, Porto Alegre (1.27%), Salvador (1.06%), Fortaleza (0.99%) and Recife (0.90%) had the highest increases. Only Goiânia (-0.01%) registered deflation in April, due, in particular, to the drop in gasoline prices (-1.62%).
For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected from March 16 to April 12, 2019 and compared to those in effect from February 13 to March 15, 2019. The indicator refers to households with income from 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia.
