Monthly Survey of Services
Services sector closes February at -0.4% and accumulates second drop in a row
April 12, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 12, 2019 11h51 AM
Having grown 0.8% in December, the service sector fell for the second consecutive time in February (-0.4%), in comparison with January. The result offset the gain at the end of 2018, since January had already been negative (-0.4%). The cumulative loss was of 0.9% in the first two months. The data are from the Monthly Survey of Services (PMS), released today by the IBGE.
"Along with January drop, the decrease fully offsets the advance that had occurred in December (0.8%). As a result, the sector remains oscillating around 11.4% - below the peak of the series, which occurred in January and November 2014, " explains research manager Rodrigo Lobo. "The fact is that there is no consistent recovery for the services sector," he adds.
Among the sectors, there was a predominance of negative rates. Services rendered to families (-1.1%), Transportation, support services and mailing (-2.6%) and Other services (-3.8%) fell in February. Professional, administrative and complementary services remained stable (0.0%), while Information and communication services (0.8%) was the only high.
"The Transportation sector leads in terms of negative impact on the overall index, registering the third negative rate in a row. It is the sharpest fall in this activity since July 2018. There was pressure from the air transportation of passengers, also for the January increase, although, in theory, the seasonal adjustment serves to compensate it a little," explains Rodrigo.
"The second negative impact is Other Services, which is extremely heterogeneous. There was a decline in real estate activities and support financial services, which includes stock market management. On the other hand, services provided to families decreased 1.1%, practically eliminating the gain of October 2018 to January. The negative pressure came mainly from restaurants and hotels," the research manager adds.
In comparison with February 2018, however, growth was 3.8%, the highest since the same period in 2014. "All sectors registered highs at the same time. This had not happened since December 2012. Another factor we can highlight is the percentage of services on the rise, which was 53.6%. This had not occurred so widely since April 2013," explains the research manager.
Rodrigo, in turn, calls the attention to the impact of the calendar on the positive result of February. "We had two more workdays in February 2019, against the 18 of last year. This leads to a greater number of service contracts. If we had the same number of days, the growth would be 0.9%, a positive rate, but much less intense than that of 3.8%," he said.
The cumulative value of the first two months of 2019 also recorded a positive change compared to the initial two months of 2018 (2.9%). It is the first positive rate in the comparison of this period since 2014. The cumulative index in the last 12 months was 0.7%, the highest point since March 2015.
